Making Software: What Really Works, and Why We Believe It

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They found the overall quality of evidence very low, and concluded that more research is needed of Agile methods other than XP, particularly studies of mature teams, where the researchers adopt more rigorous methods.

They concluded that although the CHAOS report is one of the most frequently cited papers on estimate overruns, its results cannot be trusted.

The greater the project’s size, criticality, and stability, the greater the need for validated architecture feasibility evidence. However, for very small low-criticality projects with high volatility, the architecting efforts make little difference and don’t need to be redone continuously, which would produce a negative return on investment. In such cases, Agile methods such as XP will be more effective.